lunes, 30 de mayo de 2011

Who Would Take Down Google? Outside Dissenters.. or Itself?

In doing some research for this blog entry, I came across an interesting presentation that covers particular threats to Google from several different vantage points. While most of the listed threats in the presentation are fairly pedestrian, a few did stick out to me as major issues that Google needs to resolve if it hopes to maintain its current stewardship as an innovation leader.

Antitrust & Privacy Issues
It has been a long time since Google has been just a search engine business. In fact, Google now offers services (and good ones to boot) that encompass pretty much every vital function of our routine online lives, from video viewing (Youtube) to e-mail (GMail) to even blogging (Blogger). As a result, Google has put itself in a position where outsiders could cry foul as Google faces conflicts of interests. Is it creating a monopoly? Is it favoring in-house services? How can we be sure that Google is fairly listing websites in its search engine without any sort of transparency to its algorithms? Unfortunately for Google, these cries become even louder as it rolls out new services and as it integrates features across these services (think of the AdSense toolbar above your GMail e-mails). This is a particular threat for Google as not only will it start to face legal pressures but also reputational effects in the public arena. Much like Microsoft is now a much-maligned brand in the public eye, Google could be down the same path, which could stunt its ability to continue its meteoric rise.

Along the same lines as these antitrust claims, Google faces the threat of privacy infringement claims. Already Google has taken initiatives that overstep boundaries, as evidenced by the backlash of Google Buzz. Even with milder developments like the creation of a holistic Google account, everyday people have voiced their concerns. The move itself makes sense: creating a general profile that pools all information from all Google products makes them ever more valuable to the user. Nevertheless, more wrong steps like Google Buzz, or a viral claim that Google is selling user data, could be reputationally catastrophic for Google.

Internal Failures
Perhaps equally devastating and more likely is that Google's demise could be its own doing. Just as recently as a few weeks ago, Google committed an inexcusable gaffe of giving out sensitive data of its business customers to other customers. This type of error, in addition to occasional crashes and functional failures in its services, can have a profound eroding effect on the confidence business users, who are its main revenue driving consumers, have in the company. Another particular error of note is not a technical one but one of utter mismanagement: several companies are looking to sue Google following an algorithm change that displaced them from the front results page (thereby hurting their revenue) without any prior indication of change from the company.

Additionally, Google is no longer a sprightly start-up firm in one line of business. Rather, it is a mature company with its toe in many businesses and with a stock on the market that has already seen its LinkedIn-style stock growth. As such, tangible incentives for joining the company become harder and harder to generate, and the failure to attract new talent and to retain existing talent may have a considerable effect on Google's future. Though this threat would be far more slow-moving than the other three mentioned above, it could certainly have the most catastrophic effect.

Final Word

What remains to be seen is how Google responds to these threats and more. The aforementioned presentation I had discovered not only touched upon these four threats but an additional 8 more. The next few years are going to be especially crucial for Google, and it's a certainty that the world will be watching them with very close eyes.

For more information, go to http://seekingalpha.com/article/128077-the-strategic-threats-facing-google

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